The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday afternoon raised the odds of tropical formation in the southwestern Gulf to near 100 percent through both 48 hours and seven days, and said advisories on the system would likely begin Tuesday evening or overnight.
In its 2 p.m. Eastern tropical weather outlook, the center said satellite images and surface observations showed thunderstorms around the low pressure area becoming better organized while surface pressures fell. The disturbance, designated AL92, is moving slowly eastward and could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the western Yucatan Peninsula within a couple of days.
The forecast then turns the system north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. The center said it is still too early to determine specific impacts on the northern Gulf Coast, and asked interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana to monitor its progress closely. The Lake Houston area is not in that advisory area at this time, and no watches, warnings or advisories are in effect for Harris, Montgomery or Liberty counties.
A NOAA Gulfstream jet was sampling the atmosphere over the Gulf on Tuesday afternoon, and Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft were scheduled to fly into the system Wednesday.
Early season track guidance shifts, which is why the Lake Houston area watches Gulf systems even when the advisory area sits well to the east. Local flooding advocate Bob Rehak also flagged the system on ReduceFlooding.com on Tuesday morning.
