Tropical Storm Isaias is intensifying quickly in the southwestern Gulf and is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday morning, the National Hurricane Center said in its 4 p.m. Central advisory on Wednesday, October 7. The hurricane center has posted hurricane, storm surge and tropical storm watches along the north central Gulf Coast. No watches or warnings are in effect for any part of Texas.
What changed since Wednesday morning
The 4 p.m. Central advisory put Isaias near 22.7 degrees north and 92.9 degrees west, about 225 miles west northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 500 miles south southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds were 65 mph, the minimum central pressure was 994 millibars, and the storm was moving east northeast at 8 mph.
That is a marked strengthening over the course of one day. In the 4 a.m. Central advisory, which this site reported Wednesday morning, Isaias had 40 mph sustained winds and a pressure of 1004 millibars. Hurricane hunter aircraft measured peak winds of 61 knots at the 700 millibar level during the afternoon, and forecasters noted that a central dense overcast had formed and the system had become more symmetric than it was that morning.
The hurricane center’s forecast carries Isaias to about 90 mph by Thursday afternoon and about 105 mph by Friday morning.
Where the watches are
A hurricane watch is in effect from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida. A storm surge watch covers the area from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown, Florida. Tropical storm watches cover the stretch from the Jefferson and Plaquemines parish line to west of Bay St. Louis, and from east of Indian Pass to the Aucilla River.
All of those areas are east of Texas. Forecasters said a deepening trough along the northwestern Gulf Coast and a strengthening Atlantic subtropical ridge should push the system faster to the northeast on Thursday and to the north on Friday, and they adjusted the track slightly farther east with this advisory.
What it means for the Lake Houston area
Nothing, on the current forecast. There are no National Weather Service watches, warnings or advisories for Harris, Montgomery or Liberty counties. The Houston/Galveston forecast for Kingwood, Humble and Atascocita is mostly clear tonight with a low around 71, sunny Thursday with a high near 93, and clear Thursday night, with chances of precipitation of 1 percent or less through Thursday night.
Forecast tracks shift, and the hurricane center issues new advisories every six hours, with intermediate updates when watches and warnings are in effect. Readers who want to follow the storm directly should use the hurricane center rather than relying on any one advisory.
This site’s evening lake levels and weather report carries the current Lake Houston and Lake Conroe readings, and Wednesday morning’s coverage of Isaias forming in the Gulf has the earlier advisory detail.
