The Gulf system this desk reported on Tuesday became Tropical Storm Isaias early Wednesday, and the National Hurricane Center expects it to strengthen into a hurricane by Thursday. The forecast track still points away from the Texas coast.
In its 4 a.m. Central advisory Wednesday, the hurricane center placed the center of Isaias near 22.0 degrees north and 94.1 degrees west, about 285 miles west of Progreso, Mexico, moving east-northeast at 8 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1004 millibars. Forecasters called for rapid strengthening over the next day or two.
The track in that advisory carries Isaias east-northeast through Wednesday, then turns it northeast and north on Thursday and Friday, passing north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approaching the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. The hurricane center said no coastal watches or warnings were in effect as of the advisory, and that hurricane watches would likely be required for part of the U.S. northern Gulf coast later in the day.
What the Rainfall Forecast Covers
The hurricane center’s rainfall outlook for Friday through the weekend runs from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, with 3 to 6 inches expected and localized totals up to 10 inches. A wider band of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, is possible across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash, urban and isolated river flooding are possible in those areas.
The Texas coast and the Lake Houston area are not in that rainfall footprint. The National Weather Service forecast for the Kingwood area through Thursday is sunny with chances of precipitation of 2 percent or less, and there are no active weather alerts for Harris, Montgomery or Liberty counties.
Why This Is Still Worth Watching
Forecast tracks shift, and a storm that is three days from landfall has room to move. The hurricane center updates its advisories every six hours, with intermediate public advisories in between once watches or warnings are posted. Local flooding advocate Bob Rehak covered the system’s development at ReduceFlooding on Tuesday, before it was named.
This desk reported the formation odds and the initial northern Gulf aim in Tuesday evening’s update. Today’s lake levels and weather post carries the current Lake Houston and Lake Conroe readings.
