Hurricane Isaias strengthened through the day Thursday and now carries 100 mph sustained winds, up from the 80 mph the National Hurricane Center reported in its 4 a.m. Central advisory. Every watch and warning tied to the storm remains east of Texas. Nothing is in effect for Harris, Montgomery or Liberty counties.
Where the Storm Is
Advisory 9, issued at 4 p.m. Central on Thursday, October 8, placed the center of Isaias near 24.4 degrees north, 89.3 degrees west. That is about 215 miles north of Progreso, Mexico, and about 325 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds are 100 mph with higher gusts, and the minimum central pressure is 975 millibars, down from 979 millibars twelve hours earlier.
The storm is moving northeast at 12 mph, a change from the east northeast track reported Thursday morning. The hurricane center expects a turn toward the north on Friday. Hurricane force winds extend up to 15 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend up to 125 miles.
Where the Warnings Are
The hurricane center made no changes to its watches and warnings with this advisory, though the storm surge warning now runs farther east than it did Thursday morning.
- Storm surge warning: the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River, Florida
- Hurricane warning: Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay and Gulf county line, Florida
- Tropical storm warning: the Jefferson and Plaquemines parish line, Louisiana, to west of Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and east of the Bay and Gulf county line to the Aucilla River, Florida
- Storm surge watch: the Suwannee River to Yankeetown, Florida
The westernmost edge of any warning is the Jefferson and Plaquemines parish line in Louisiana. No watch or warning touches the Texas coast or any Texas county, and the advisory does not mention Texas.
Storm Surge Forecast
The hurricane center gives these peak surge heights above ground, if the peak surge coincides with high tide.
- Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida: 5 to 7 feet
- Mobile Bay: 5 to 7 feet
- Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River, Florida: 4 to 6 feet
- The mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi: 3 to 5 feet
- The Steinhatchee River to the Suwannee River, Florida: 3 to 5 feet
- The Suwannee River to Yankeetown, Florida: 2 to 4 feet
What It Means Here
Landfall is expected along the northern Gulf Coast inside the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions begin Friday in the warning area, with hurricane conditions Friday night into early Saturday.
For the Lake Houston area, the National Weather Service forecast generated at 4:21 p.m. Central Thursday carries a zero percent chance of precipitation tonight and 4 percent on Friday, with northeast winds of 10 mph or less throughout. There are no active alerts for Harris, Montgomery or Liberty counties, and no flood watch of any kind. Both Lake Houston and Lake Conroe are in their normal range, as set out in tonight’s lake levels and weather report.
This site has tracked the system since the hurricane center put formation odds near 100 percent on October 6, through formation as a tropical storm, strengthening to 65 mph and the upgrade to a hurricane Thursday morning. The forecast track has pointed east of Texas at every stage.
The next intermediate advisory was scheduled for 7 p.m. Central and the next complete advisory for 10 p.m. Central.
