Tropical Storm Isaias became Hurricane Isaias overnight, and the National Hurricane Center’s 4 a.m. Central advisory on Thursday, October 8, put its maximum sustained winds at 80 mph. No watches, warnings or advisories are in effect for Harris, Montgomery or Liberty counties, and the Lake Houston area forecast for Thursday is sunny with a zero percent chance of rain.
What the 4 a.m. advisory says
Advisory number 7 placed the eye of Isaias near latitude 23.3 north, longitude 91.2 west, about 170 miles northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 420 miles south southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The hurricane center recorded a minimum central pressure of 979 millibars from hurricane hunter dropsonde data and movement toward the east northeast near 9 mph.
The forecast calls for a turn toward the northeast later Thursday, then a turn northward on Friday, passing north of the Yucatan Peninsula and reaching the northern Gulf Coast inside the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. The hurricane center expects additional strengthening through early Friday and says Isaias should remain a strong hurricane as it approaches the coast Friday night. Hurricane force winds extend up to 15 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds up to 90 miles.
Where the warnings are
Every watch and warning tied to Isaias is east of Texas. A storm surge warning runs from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Steinhatchee River, Florida. A hurricane warning covers Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay and Gulf county line in Florida. Tropical storm warnings cover the coast from the Jefferson and Plaquemines parish line in Louisiana west of Ocean Springs, and from the Bay and Gulf county line east to the Aucilla River in Florida. A storm surge watch runs from the Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, Florida.
The hurricane center’s storm surge forecast is 5 to 7 feet from Ocean Springs to Indian Pass, Florida, and in Mobile Bay, 3 to 5 feet from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, 4 to 6 feet from Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River, 2 to 4 feet from the Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, and 1 to 3 feet in Lake Pontchartrain. The advisory describes the surge threat as life threatening and says preparations in the warning area should be rushed to completion Thursday.
What it means here
Nothing, so far. There are no coastal or inland watches, warnings or advisories for Harris, Montgomery or Liberty counties. The National Weather Service forecast issued Thursday morning for the Kingwood gridpoint carries a zero percent chance of precipitation Thursday and Thursday night, a high near 90 and a northeast wind of 5 to 10 mph. Friday carries a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, which is an ordinary October figure here and is not attributed by the forecast to Isaias.
Forecast tracks shift, advisories are updated every six hours, and the hurricane center notes that models continue to disagree on the exact track after the storm turns north. Residents who want to follow it should read the advisories directly rather than track graphics shared secondhand.
This site covered the system when the hurricane center put formation odds near 100 percent on October 6, when it became Tropical Storm Isaias on October 7, and when it strengthened to 65 mph with watches posted Wednesday evening. Local lake levels and the three period forecast are on Thursday morning’s levels and weather page.
The Kingwood flood blog ReduceFlooding also wrote up the upgrade Thursday morning, noting the dropsonde that measured average winds of 76 knots and formed the basis for the 10:30 p.m. Central reclassification.
