Hurricane Isaias strengthened overnight in the Gulf and is now forecast to make landfall on the northern Gulf Coast tonight or early Saturday. Every watch and warning tied to the storm remains east of Texas, and nothing is in effect for Harris, Montgomery or Liberty counties.
Where the Storm Is
In public advisory 11, issued at 4 a.m. Central on Friday, October 9, the National Hurricane Center placed the eye of Isaias near 26.4 degrees north, 88.0 degrees west, about 370 miles north northeast of Progreso, Mexico, and about 200 miles south southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds were 110 mph, the minimum central pressure was 963 millibars, and the storm was moving north northeast at 15 mph.
That is a meaningful change from advisory 9, which this site reported Thursday evening. Winds have risen from 100 mph to 110 mph, pressure has fallen from 975 millibars to 963 millibars, and the track has turned from northeast to north northeast. The Hurricane Center says Isaias is likely to become a major hurricane this morning, with slight weakening before landfall but still a dangerous hurricane when it arrives. The wind field has also grown: hurricane force winds now extend 30 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds 185 miles, up from 15 miles and 125 miles twelve hours earlier.
Every Warning Is East of Texas
No watch or warning issued for Isaias touches the Texas coast or any Texas county. Advisory 11 listed no changes to the watches and warnings already in effect.
- Storm surge warning: the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River, Florida.
- Hurricane warning: Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay and Gulf county line in Florida.
- Tropical storm warning: the Jefferson and Plaquemines parish line in Louisiana to west of Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and from east of the Bay and Gulf county line to the Aucilla River in Florida.
- Storm surge watch: the Suwannee River to Yankeetown, Florida.
The westernmost edge of any warning is the Jefferson and Plaquemines parish line in Louisiana, which is roughly 300 miles east of the Texas state line.
Surge, Rain and Tornado Risk in the Warning Area
The highest storm surge in the forecast is 5 to 7 feet above ground level from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to Indian Pass, Florida, with 4 to 6 feet from Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River, 3 to 5 feet from the Steinhatchee River to the Suwannee River, 3 to 5 feet from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Dauphin Island, and 3 to 5 feet in Mobile Bay. Lake Pontchartrain is forecast at 1 to 3 feet.
Rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is expected through the weekend across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia, with localized totals up to 15 inches possible. The Hurricane Center says flash and urban flooding is likely across that region and that river flooding is also expected. A tornado risk begins late this afternoon along the coast of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and far southwest Georgia.
What It Means Here
Nothing in the Lake Houston area forecast is tied to Isaias. The National Weather Service forecast for the Kingwood area calls for sunny skies today with a high near 91 and a zero percent chance of precipitation, clear tonight with a low around 67, and sunny Saturday with a high near 90. There are no active National Weather Service alerts for Harris, Montgomery or Liberty counties.
Lake Houston read 42.49 feet Friday morning and Lake Conroe stood at 94.5 percent of conservation capacity, both in their normal range. This morning’s lake levels and weather report carries the full readings.
Earlier Coverage
This site has followed the system since before it was named: formation odds near 100 percent on October 6, Tropical Storm Isaias forms with a track east of Texas, hurricane watches posted to the east, 80 mph winds on Thursday morning and 100 mph on Thursday evening.
Source
National Hurricane Center public advisory 11 on Hurricane Isaias, issued 4 a.m. Central, Friday, October 9, 2026, read directly from the Hurricane Center. Local forecast and alert information from the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston office. Forecasts change with each advisory, and the Hurricane Center issues a new complete advisory every six hours.
