Hurricane Isaias is now a Category 3 hurricane and is expected to come ashore on the western Florida Panhandle this evening, roughly 400 miles east of the Texas line. No watch or warning of any kind is in effect for Harris, Montgomery or Liberty counties, and the local forecast carries a rain chance of 0 to 1 percent through Saturday night. This post is here because the storm is in the Gulf and this area watched it form, not because anything is expected here.
Where the Storm Is
Public advisory 13, issued at 4 p.m. Central on Friday, October 9, placed the center of Isaias near latitude 29.2 north, longitude 87.0 west, about 90 miles south of Pensacola, Florida, and about 125 miles south southeast of Mobile, Alabama. Maximum sustained winds were near 115 mph, making it a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with a minimum central pressure of 959 millibars. The storm was moving north at 17 mph.
That is a step up from advisory 11, which this site reported Friday morning. Winds have risen from 110 mph to 115 mph, pressure has fallen from 963 millibars to 959, and the Hurricane Center has moved from saying Isaias was likely to become a major hurricane to confirming that it is one. The advisory now names a landfall location and a time rather than a window.
The Hurricane Center says little change in strength is expected before landfall this evening. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland, and Isaias is forecast to become post-tropical on Saturday as it tracks across Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley through the weekend.
What Is in Effect, and Where
Advisory 13 listed no changes to watches and warnings. A storm surge warning runs from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River in Florida. A hurricane warning covers Ocean Springs, Mississippi, east to the Bay and Gulf county line in Florida. Tropical storm warnings cover the coast from the Jefferson and Plaquemines parish line in Louisiana to west of Ocean Springs, and from the Bay and Gulf county line east to the Aucilla River in Florida. A storm surge watch covers the Suwannee River to Yankeetown, Florida.
The westernmost edge of any of those areas is the Jefferson and Plaquemines parish line in Louisiana, which is roughly 300 miles east of the Texas state line. Nothing in the advisory reaches Texas.
The advisory opens with the lines that conditions are deteriorating quickly inside the surge and hurricane warning areas and that residents there should be seeking safe shelter. Those lines apply to the warning areas named above, not to this coverage area.
The Hazards the Hurricane Center Lists
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles, both wider than twelve hours ago. A sustained wind of 46 mph with a gust to 58 mph was measured at Fair Point Light 2 near Gulf Breeze, Florida, and a gust to 56 mph was reported at Pensacola Naval Air Station.
Peak storm surge of 6 to 9 feet above ground is forecast from the Alabama and Florida border to Grayton Beach, Florida, with 4 to 7 feet from Grayton Beach to Indian Pass, 4 to 6 feet from Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River and from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to the state line, and 3 to 5 feet from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Dauphin Island and in lower Mobile Bay.
Rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is expected across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia through the weekend, with localized totals up to 15 inches possible. Across the rest of the Southeast the Hurricane Center expects 2 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches in the Southern Appalachians and the coastal Carolinas. A tornado risk continues tonight across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama and southern Georgia, and shifts Saturday to eastern Alabama, the Panhandle, Georgia and the Carolinas.
What It Means Here
Nothing in the local forecast changes because of Isaias. The National Weather Service office in Houston and Galveston has clear skies and a low around 64 degrees for tonight, sunny and 92 degrees Saturday, and clear and 69 degrees Saturday night, with a rain chance of 0 percent, 1 percent and 0 percent across the three periods. Both area lakes are in their normal ranges, as this evening’s lake levels report sets out.
Two points are worth separating carefully. The Hurricane Center says swells generated by Isaias are affecting much of the Gulf coast of the United States and are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip currents. Separately, the Houston and Galveston office has a rip current statement and a coastal flood advisory in effect until early Saturday for Gulf facing beaches including Galveston Island, the Bolivar Peninsula, Brazoria County beaches and the Matagorda Peninsula. Those advisories do not name Isaias as the cause, and those beaches are outside this coverage area, but anyone from Kingwood, Humble or Atascocita driving to the coast this weekend should know they are posted.
This site has followed the system from the Hurricane Center’s first formation odds through Friday morning: the formation outlook on October 6, the storm forming in the Gulf, the first hurricane watches, hurricane strength at 80 mph, 100 mph on Thursday evening and 110 mph on Friday morning. The next complete advisory is due at 10 p.m. Central.
